Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted to be Above-Average
by Armando Duke
Houston, TX - Scientists are predicting that this year will
be an above-average hurricane season in the Atlantic, the
fourth year in a row that the Atlantic basin will see a
record number of storms.
Colorado State University scientists Philip Klotzbach and
William Gray predict that the hurricane season will produce
9 hurricanes out of 17 named storms during the June through
November period when the weather is most severe. The 2005
season produced a record 15 hurricanes and 27 named storms.
The scientists said that the water temperatures on the surface
of the Atlantic Ocean are a major contributor to hurricanes
and that the current climate signals show that this year is
going to be severe.
The Fort Collins, Colorado-based scientists report issued
today confirms an earlier report they released in December.
The scientists said that five of the nine hurricanes will
produce sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or more,
making them major hurricanes on the five-step
Saffir-Simpson scale.
Nine of the past eleven years the surface waters of the Atlantic
have been above normal, creating more storms than is typical
during the season. The scientists believe that this trend
will continue for another 15 to 20 years. The 2003 and
2004 seasons generated seven hurricanes and nine hurricanes,
respectively.
The scientists forecast that continued warm tropical and north
Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, prevalent in most years
since 1995, as well as neutral or weak La Nina conditions,
are a recipe for greatly enhanced Atlantic basin hurricane
activity.
La Nina refers to the cooling of ocean surface temperatures
off the western coast of South America. The phenomenon affects
the jet stream, alters storm tracks and creates unusual
weather patterns. La Nina typically increases tropical
activity in the Atlantic Ocean.
While the scientists are confident in the outcome of the
number of storms to hit during the Atlantic hurricane season,
one good thing is they do not believe as many of them will
make landfall as during last year's hurricane season when
four of them struck land; Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma
last year and Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne in 2004.
The scientists said that upper-air currents over the
Atlantic were responsible for pushing the hurricanes
towards land during those years.
|